JAPAN MELTDOWN MAY BOOST SOLAR POWER PLANTS

Nuclear crisis: Positive fall out for CSP?
Jason Deign, 6 May 2011 (CSP Today)

"…Three days after the [Japanese disaster], Piper Jaffrey analyst Ahmar Zaman pointed out that Japan’s considerable polycrystalline silicon production capacity would likely be crippled by the disaster and predicted…[a] drop-off in poly production in Japan [that] will tighten global supply…[E]stimates of average selling prices for polycrystalline silicon…[were over] USD$70/kg…Piper Jaffray slashed its ratings on a number of PV stocks, including Canadian Solar, JA Solar and SunPower…[but] Barclays Capital…[said] the Fukushima Daini power plant would focus attention on clean tech alternatives such as solar…

"…Shyam Mehta, senior analyst at GTM Research, the market research arm of Green Tech Media...[said] the closure of M. Setek's 7000 MT polysilicon plant in Northern Japan…until June 2011…[and] Mitsubishi's multi c-Si ingot plant experienced disruption…but is expected to recover soon…[and one] of Sharp's module plants faced power blackouts and…[decreased] production was not at full capacity…[and] a number of materials and chemicals producers…[were] affected…"

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"…[But GTM Research does] not expect a significant impact on the global supply chain…[and] any fall in Japanese PV production capacity is likely to coincide with a fall in [Japanese] demand…

"A search for alternatives to nuclear could favour CSP over other renewable energy types because…[it can incorporate storage and provide dispatchable power]…"

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"…GTM Research estimates 38% (around 6,309 MW) came from natural gas and 35% (5,812 MW) from coal. While there was no new nuclear, solar only accounted for 2% (283MW)…[N]uclear is 20% of the US electricity generation…[Solar is unlikely to] take up that whole share unless….a solar plant [can act] more like a nuclear plant…"

[Brett Prior, senior analyst, GTM Research:] “…[US utilities] need to meet Renewable Portfolio Standards, so if they are not able to build nuclear, since they can only put so much intermittent renewable power on the grid they may be willing to pay a bit more for CSP…[but] all politicians have restated their commitment to nuclear…[and people] have short-term memories…Right now it seems no nuclear plant is going to be built because of Japan but a year after Deepwater Horizon people are already pressing for more offshore drilling.”